Animas River Flooding — October 23, 2026

1. Overview

Question: Did the Animas River flooding cause a levee, dike, floodwall, or dam to fail, or produce a sudden wall-of-water event, between about 2:16 and 4:16 PM on October 23? This is separate from the ongoing rise toward tonight's crest.

Short answer: No such event has been reported or documented.

• No official product, county alert, or news report reviewed describes a structural failure or a sudden wave on the Animas. Confirmed — none reported
• The 15-minute USGS gage-height records at Cedar Hill and Farmington show a steady rise with no abrupt jump. Confirmed
  • The largest 15-minute rise on October 23 was 0.08 ft at Cedar Hill and 0.09 ft at Farmington.
  • A sudden wave passing either gauge would be expected to appear as a sharp step between consecutive readings. None appears.

Limits of this answer

• Gauges measure only their own locations. A localized failure between gauges that spilled water sideways onto the floodplain might not register at either one. None has been reported.
• Gauge data after 5:00 PM (Cedar Hill) and 5:30 PM (Farmington) are not covered here.
• The flooding itself is serious and ongoing. County alerts on October 23 read "EVACUATE NOW."

2. Recommended actions

1. Follow current evacuation orders.
   • San Juan County alerts on October 23 directed residents along the rivers to evacuate, and listed McGee Park as open for people, pets, and RVs.
   • Check San Juan County OEM for orders currently in effect.
2. Watch for revised NWS forecasts.
   • The latest Farmington statement (2:31 PM) forecast an 11.4-ft crest late this evening. The riverwalk floods at 12.0 ft.
   • Next scheduled statements: Farmington, Saturday 2:45 PM; Cedar Hill, Saturday noon. Check weather.gov/abq for anything earlier.
3. Read "breached banks" as overbank flooding unless a structure is named.
   • In the October 23 county alerts, the phrase accompanies rising-river evacuation messages and names no levee, dam, or floodwall.
4. To check for a sudden wave, use the USGS tab-separated output, not the graph.
   • Look for a step change between consecutive 15-minute readings.
   • October 23's largest steps were under 0.1 ft at both Animas gauges.
5. Use Farmington figures directly; hold off on Cedar Hill comparisons.
   • USGS Farmington readings match the NWS Farmington observations.
   • USGS Cedar Hill readings do not match the NWS Cedar Hill observations. Don't compare USGS Cedar Hill gage height with NWS Cedar Hill thresholds or forecasts until that is reconciled (Section 4.5).

3. Key findings at a glance

4. Gauge records

4.1 Animas River near Cedar Hill, NM — USGS 09363500

Provisional 15-minute data, retrieved 6:10 PM.

Changes between consecutive readings

• Largest 15-minute rise on October 23: 0.08 ft (10:15–10:30 AM, and again 2:15–2:30 PM).
• 2:16–4:16 PM: largest rise 0.08 ft (2:15–2:30 PM); largest fall 0.03 ft.
• 3:00–5:00 PM: net change +0.05 ft. The stage was roughly level.
• Thursday, October 22, for comparison: largest 15-minute rise 0.18 ft (1:15–1:30 PM).

4.2 Animas River at Farmington, NM — USGS 09364500

Provisional 15-minute data, retrieved 6:11 PM.

Changes between consecutive readings

• Largest 15-minute rise on October 23: 0.09 ft (4:45–5:00 PM).
• 2:16–4:16 PM: largest rise 0.06 ft (4:00–4:15 PM).
• Thursday, October 22, for comparison: largest 15-minute rise 0.29 ft (2:00–2:15 PM).
• Data gap: no gage height or discharge between 4:45 AM and 8:45 AM Friday.

4.3 Around the noon "surge" reports

Between 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM:

• Cedar Hill: largest 15-minute rise 0.07 ft (11:30–11:45 AM).
• Farmington: largest 15-minute rise 0.08 ft (12:00–12:15 PM).

Neither gauge shows a step change in that period.

4.4 Total rise and historical context

Total rise, 12:00 AM Thursday, October 22, to latest reading

• Cedar Hill: 6.07 ft → 11.90 ft (+5.83 ft) by 5:00 PM Friday.
• Farmington: 6.42 ft → 10.15 ft (+3.73 ft) by 5:30 PM Friday.

October 23 daily discharge statistics (from the USGS station pages)

• Farmington, 102 years of record: median 327 cfs; highest 3,320 cfs (1942).
• Cedar Hill, 91 years of record: median 350 cfs; highest 2,910 cfs (1942).
• Today's instantaneous flows are 8,470 cfs (Farmington, 5:30 PM) and 15,500 cfs (Cedar Hill, 5:00 PM).
• These statistics describe daily flows for this calendar date. They are not a like-for-like record comparison with instantaneous readings.

Flow difference between the gauges (Unresolved)

• Cedar Hill is upstream of Farmington.
• At noon on October 20, Cedar Hill read 1,350 cfs and Farmington 1,010 cfs, about 340 cfs apart.
• At 5:00 PM on October 23, Cedar Hill read 15,500 cfs and Farmington 8,450 cfs, about 7,000 cfs apart.
• No official source reviewed explains the difference.

4.5 NWS observations compared with USGS

Farmington — the two match.

Cedar Hill — the two don't match.

• The difference isn't constant, so the two can't be converted.
• Depending on which difference applies, the USGS reading of about 11.9 ft could be below, at, or above the NWS forecast crest of 11.3 ft.
• NWS location identifiers end in a two-character state code (N5 for New Mexico, C2 for Colorado). The Farmington and Shiprock points use N5 (ARFN5, FRMN5, SHRN5). The Cedar Hill point uses C2 (CDRC2), as Durango does (DRGC2). Whether that reflects a different gauge or reference is not established. Unresolved

4.6 Animas River at Durango, CO — NOAA DRGC2 / USGS 09361500

• Flood categories: action 7.0 ft; minor 8.0 ft; moderate 9.0 ft; major 10.5 ft. Confirmed
• Highest historic crest: 11.00 ft, October 5, 1911. Confirmed
• The observed trace rises into the minor-flood category on October 23. Confirmed — visual reading of the page graph
• The page displayed "No watches, warnings or advisories are in effect for this area" at an unrecorded capture time. Confirmed text; time unknown
• Upstream flows of about 9,850 cfs Friday morning, and nearly 10,000 cfs at 9:30 AM, were reported. Reported — verify
• A mid-afternoon stage of 8.36 ft was reported once. Unresolved

5. NWS products

5.1 Animas River at Farmington (ARFN5)

Thresholds and history in the 2:31 PM statement

• Bankfull 9.0 ft; flood stage 10.0 ft; minor flooding forecast.
• At 12.0 ft, the riverwalk area in Farmington is flooded. The impact text says water levels have not been this high since the flood of 1927.
• Crest comparison: 11.0 ft on May 14, 1941.
• Forecast table (2 PM values): Saturday 9.9 ft; Sunday 8.0 ft; Monday 7.2 ft.

5.2 Animas River near Cedar Hill (CDRC2)

These figures use the NWS reference for this point (see Section 4.5).

Thresholds and history in the 12:15 PM statement

• Bankfull 9.5 ft; flood stage 10.5 ft; minor flooding occurring and forecast; "This approaches the flood of record."
• At 11.5 ft, the river would be near an all-time high, and areas that have never flooded will likely be inundated.
• Crest comparison: 11.3 ft on September 6, 1970.

5.3 San Juan River (context)

• At Farmington (FRMN5), 12:07 PM
  • Major flooding occurring; 14.1 ft at 11:00 AM; flood stage 8.5 ft; bankfull 7.0 ft.
  • "This approaches the flood of record." Crest comparison: 12.3 ft on September 6, 1909.
  • Forecast to fall below flood stage early Saturday afternoon.
  • Thursday 11:00 AM reading, for comparison: 5.8 ft.
• At Shiprock (SHRN5), 12:08 PM
  • 16.2 ft at 11:00 AM; flood stage 15.5 ft.
  • Major flooding forecast, with a crest of 22.2 ft just after midnight.

5.4 What the NWS products don't say

• No captured Animas product mentions a levee, dike, dam, floodwall, flash flood, or flood wave. Confirmed
• On the NWS national Flood Warning page, the only text containing "fail" is NWS Flagstaff's warning, issued 3:22 PM MST (4:22 PM MDT), for the Little Colorado River at Winslow, Arizona. Confirmed
  • The language is conditional: flow above 18.0 ft for about 6 hours or more may cause levee erosion and eventual leakage or failure.
  • The stage was 17.7 ft at 3:00 PM MDT, with a crest of 17.76 ft forecast for 4:00 PM MDT.
• NWS Pueblo, 4:43 PM, reports the Park Creek bridge washed away on the South Fork Rio Grande, in the Rio Grande basin. Confirmed
• No Animas statement issued after 2:31 PM (Farmington) or 12:15 PM (Cedar Hill) appeared in the captured listings. The Albuquerque product listing was captured only in part. Unresolved
• An NWS Grand Junction Flood Warning issued 3:57 PM was reported to include the Animas in La Plata County, Colorado, with flash-flood-risk language and no failure language. It was reported once and not captured. Unresolved

5.5 H-VTEC line decoding

This is an interpretation of the standard NWS hydrologic VTEC line format. Verify it against NWS documentation before relying on it.

• Each statement includes a line such as /ARFN5.1.ER.261023T1928Z.261024T0500Z.261024T1930Z.NO/.
• Read as location, severity, cause, flood begin, flood crest, flood end (UTC), and record status, the decoded crest times (MDT) are:
  • Animas at Farmington: about 11:00 PM Friday.
  • Animas near Cedar Hill: about 4:00 PM Friday.
  • San Juan at Farmington: 11:00 AM Friday.
  • San Juan at Shiprock: midnight.
• The decoded codes are consistent with the product text:
  • Severity 1 (minor) at both Animas points; 3 (major) at both San Juan points.
  • Record status NR at Cedar Hill and San Juan at Farmington, both of which say they approach the flood of record.
  • UU at Shiprock, which says no flood history is available.
• The Cedar Hill USGS stage leveled between 3:00 and 5:00 PM, around the decoded 4:00 PM crest time. The magnitudes can't be compared (Section 4.5).
• The Cedar Hill end time decodes to 2:38 AM Saturday, while the product text says "just after midnight." Unresolved

6. County emergency alerts (IPAWS)

Every alert below is attributed to issuer 200830, San Juan County Public Alerts, SJC Communications Authority.

What the alerts do and don't establish

• None names a levee, dike, floodwall, or dam.
• None reviewed has an issuance time inside 2:16–4:16 PM. A complete alert log for the afternoon was not reviewed.
• If GovOneStop displays MDT, the 13:01 alert remained in effect until 4:01 PM, inside the window.

Unresolved questions

• Timezone. GovOneStop pages show no timezone.
  • The GovOneStop 10:26 record and the Forth 10:22:25 MDT record carry the same text four minutes apart, which fits an MDT display. That doesn't establish they are the same message.
  • A UTC−7 display has also been suggested, which would put the 12:48 and 13:01 alerts at 1:48 and 2:01 PM MDT.
  • Either reading places both alerts before 2:16 PM.
• "12 FEET OF WATER." The alert doesn't say what the figure refers to: depth, a gauge stage, a rise, or a location.
  • Neither Animas gauge recorded a rise approaching 12 ft on October 22–23 (Section 4.4).
  • The alert headline names the San Juan River.
• River and area. The headline names the San Juan River, but the 13:01 page's map overlay runs along a corridor north of Aztec, which is on the Animas. The overlay geometry is not verified.

7. Terms used in the reporting

7.1 General definitions

7.2 How the terms appear in the October 23 record

• "Breeched banks" (county alerts)
  • Accompanies rising-river evacuation messages.
  • Names no structure.
• "Overtopping" (county statement via KSJD, 9:41 AM) Confirmed
  • "The Animas River is overtopping in Cedar Hill."
  • The statement doesn't say what was overtopped, and doesn't describe a failure.
• "Surge" Reported — verify
  • KOB: the storm surge started affecting Farmington at around noon.
  • Farmington Police Chief Steve Hebbe, at a noon briefing: "you can see the water flow coming, you can see the surge coming."
  • AP: still higher water was on the way via the Animas River.
  • The quotes give no rate of rise or wave shape. The gauges show no step change between 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM (Section 4.3).
  • One report noted that KOB's sentence follows a photo of the San Juan overflowing, so the river it refers to is unclear. Unresolved
• "Breached" (Bloomfield wastewater plant) Confirmed
  • Source New Mexico: floodwaters breached the Bloomfield wastewater treatment center.
  • KOAT: San Juan River flooding reached the plant; staff shut it down before the water arrived; the plant flooded, and wastewater entered the San Juan River.
  • Neither report says whether a protective barrier existed or failed.
  • The river involved is the San Juan, not the Animas.

8. Related events (not on the Animas, or not in this window)

• Vallecito Creek levee break, October 11, 2025 Reported — verify
  • East side of Vallecito Creek, La Plata County, Colorado: a levee break caused rapid flooding and rescues (Denver Post, October 12, 2025; Tri-City Record, October 12, 2025).
  • A separate report describes levee breaches on the west side (Denver Gazette, October 11, 2025). The east and west reports aren't reconciled.
  • Vallecito Creek drains to the Los Pinos River, then the San Juan, not the Animas (USGS Circular 1173; single report).
• Little Colorado River, Winslow, Arizona: conditional levee-erosion language in the NWS Flagstaff warning (Section 5.4). Confirmed
• Park Creek bridge: washed away, South Fork Rio Grande (NWS Pueblo, 4:43 PM). Confirmed
• Flash Flood Warnings elsewhere in New Mexico: reported for Sandoval, Cibola, McKinley, Grant, and Luna counties during the afternoon, with none for the Animas. Reported once. Unresolved

9. Evacuations and impacts reported on October 23

• McGee Park open for people, pets, and RVs. Confirmed — alert text
• Evacuation areas named in reports Reported — verify current orders
  • Cedar Hill (County Road 2620).
  • Wildhorse Valley.
  • Lee Acres.
  • Parts of Bloomfield.
  • Harper Valley (flooded "by Friday afternoon").
  • Rancho de Animas, Pryor Lane, and Railroad.
  • About 600 homes in Farmington ordered to evacuate (Albuquerque Journal).
• State of emergency: the county said Friday morning it would declare one (KSJD, 9:41 AM). Confirmed
• Road closures were widely reported. None was tied to a structural failure or sudden wave on the Animas. Reported — verify

10. Open items and where to check

11. Conclusion

No levee, dike, floodwall, or dam failure, and no sudden wall-of-water event, has been reported on the Animas River for October 23, 2026.

The 15-minute USGS records at Cedar Hill and Farmington cover the 2:16–4:16 PM window completely and show a steady rise, with no 15-minute step larger than 0.09 ft on Friday at either gauge. NWS statements through 2:31 PM describe river flooding with forecast crests and no failure language.

The county's "breached banks" alerts name no structure, and their "12 FEET OF WATER" figure has no stated reference. A localized failure between gauges can't be excluded by gauge data alone, and none has been reported.

The ongoing flooding is serious. Farmington is above flood stage and still rising toward an 11.4-ft forecast crest, and evacuation orders remain the controlling guidance.